Overview
Al Julani tried to prove himself like Saudi Crwon Prince MBS in his speech at the historic Ummayad Mosque of Damascus. America is calling Al Jolani a bad but necessary choice. In the 80s, America had supported Osama bin Laden and Haqani by calling them moderate and freedom fighters aswell and the rest is history. This is what the end of the war means – the powerful and never-ending power. It ended in 10 days in such a way that the last three most important cities took less than 30 hours to fall. This time was also just enough for President Bashar al-Assad to make deals for his safe escape with the help of Turkey and Russia. It was decided in these deals that he would resign and go and his 55-year-old Prime Minister Jalali would be present in the office to transfer the official power. Wherever the Syrian forces are, they will quietly leave their weapons and positions and move towards Western Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s family and his other close associates will be given a safe passage and America will guarantee that Israel will not hit the aircraft carrying the Syrian president. After all these deals and guarantees, on December 8, Bashar al-Assad left in a private aircraf towards the Gulf countries. After refueling or changing the flight, he has now reached Moscow to take refuge in Russia. Russian media has also confirmed that he has come to Russia to take refuge.
It is obvious for Russia to save its long term ally in some way or the other. The biggest proof of how cowardly a cruel dictator is in reality and how far away he is from his people is given by the Bashar al Assad by leaving his tribe, his family, alone. In the coastal region of western Syria, large number of their supporters are settled. Russian air and military bases are also located there. But Bashar al-Assad was so morally weak that perhaps he did not expect support from his own people anymore. Although these are the people who were murdered in large numbers by rebels and its ally groups, the walls here are still filled with the pictures of those killed. These people have been fighting for 13 years to protect themselves from the rebels. Their life style is very different from Tahrir al Sham. They live their lives in a western style and are not ready to make religious customs a part of political strategy. Their lives are very different from Tahrir al Sham. The people of Western Syria have been fighting to defend Bashar ul Assad but he left these people alone and preferred to flee the country to save his life because surely he must have felt lack of support here as well. The best proof of the weakness of a dictator from within is mdern times isnBashar ul Assad.
Reports are that the Russian forces and bases which were present in the coastal areas of Western Syria, the Russians have removed some of their important assets and forces from there, but they are also making a deal with the present victorious rebels through Turkey that they should be allowed to maintain their bases. Keep in mind that these Russian baese are very important for international power projection because through these bases Russia not only trades energy but from here it also controls its proxies in Libya and the whole of North Africa. On the other hand, Iran is completely Defeated in the latest phase of the civil war, its forces have no place in Syria under any circumstances.
The rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani and his associates have repeatedly declared to end Iran’s influence, but they have not mentioned ending the Russian influence as many times because they have understood for years that Bashar al-Assad’s support is basically Iran and Lebanon’s backed Hezbollah. In their opinion, for their international interest, the Russians will support anyone who rules Syria because Russia has no sectary or religious ambitions, it is not with any one sect.
Who is Al Julani? Whether Abu Mohammad Al Julani, the leader of Tahrir al Sham, will be able to keep this revolution alive?
42 years old Abu Mohammad Al Julani was born in Saudi Arabia but his entire childhood was spent in Damascus. He belongs to a religious family of Salafi thoughts, that is, an advanced more radical form of the Wahabi sect that emerged from Imam Mohammad bin Abdul Wahab. He has already told in his old interview that his family used to live in the Golan hills of Syria which have now been occupied by Israel. Golan Heights is called Murtafa Tol Julan in Syrian Arabic which is why he has named himself Al Julani. This is not his family name but he has chosen it himself. According to Abu Mohammad Al Julani, his grandfather and the rest of the Muslim population of the village were forced to leave this area during the Arab-Israeli war of 1967 because Israel had occupied this place and forced most of the Arab population to leave. At that time his family left Golan Heights and came down to Damascus and then at some point went to Saudi Arabia. Al Julani was born here and then in his childhood he returned to his country Syria with his parents and stayed here. When America attacked Iraq in 2003, 21 year old Julani joined Al Qaeda and went from Damascus to Iraq. He joined the group of Abu Masab Al Zarqawi, a strict jihadist leader of the Iraqi branch of Al Qaeda. Then he started targeting the Americans and their supporting Iraqi Shia groups in Iraq. Explosions were carried out in public places and Al Julani was a part of it. Al Julani himself said that he was strongly against the killing of common people and he used to raise his voice against it among his colleagues, but since he was not a part of the top leadership, he could not stop these attacks. This is his own statement, even after this, he continued to participate in such big attacks for years in which dozens of common people were killed. Well, while fighting for Al Qaeda in Iraq, he was arrested from Musal in 2005 and sent to the famous Iraqi prison Camp Buka which was close to the Kuwait border and Abu Bakr Baghdadi was also imprisoned here. The same Baghdadi who laid the foundation of Daesh ISIS after being released from this jail. After being released from here in 2008 when Camp Buka was abolished, he made a change in his jihadi mission. Instead of going to Iraq, he agreed to go to his own country, Syria, and fight against Bashar-ul-Assad.
He joined Daesh and became a partner of Abu Bakr Baghdadi and started dangerous attacks on the government and its institutions in Syria. Here he formed an organization named Al-nusra Front and tried to gain fame in the international media as a moderate leader. In 2009 after America, he started getting attention from Turkish intelligence as well because both of these powers were against Bashar-ul-Assad like him. They wanted to finish off Bashar ul Assad, who was supported by Iran and Russia, and completely end Iranian and military influence here. Al Julani started expressing his desire to distance himself step by step from the Daesh and Al Qaeda mindset. He assured the Americans through his links and sent one-sided messages that he was not on the ideology of Pan Islamism, did not intend to go for global Jihad. He had come out of the Daesh mindset. He said that he was strictly against the massacre of minorities and Shia Muslims. According to him, he had only one enemy and that was Bashar ul Assad and forces that are supporting Bashar ul Assad’s regime. At the same time Al Julani was having secret meetings with Daesh leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. As his companions, he was preparing a large number of young suicide bombers and hitting government Syrian targets. The only difference was that in Syria, he used to attack public places less and used to attack government institutions more. But still, it is obvious that common people were suffering huge losses. While giving an interview he told that initially he used to get 50 to 60 thousand dollars from Daesh but gradually Al Julani’s own links in Arab countries increased so much that now he had a lot of money and he started sending millions of dollars from Syria to Daesh’s central commander Abu Bakr Baghdadi in Iraq. This also included the extortion money that was obtained from imprisoned Americans and state institutions to release their people.
Differences were also arising between these two leaders Baghdadi and Al Julani because Al Julani had become a very big power in Syria. Soon, the differences between these two leaders became public. An audio message of Daesh leader Abu Bakr Baghdadi started circulating in the media in whch he says that Al Julani and his companions in Syria are not a separate organization, but the area of Syria under their control is actually a part of the global Islamic government of Daesh, ISS. In refuting this public statement, the next day, an audio statement of Al Julani was also released he denied Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s connection and the global Islamic government.
He said in his audio statement that we are not a part of any such state or any such kingdom. After this, Al Julani gave an interview to Al Jazeera’s Arabic channel and said that we did not receive any clear message from Baghdadi. We came to know from the media that something like this is being said. In his video statements and interviews, he repeatedly stressed that his aim is not to establish any global Islamic state, rather he had no plans to attack Western countries. He had no enmity with the west or any place outside Syria. He has no plans for any adventure. His mission is limited only to Syria. He said this in his interviews. All these conversations, video conversations that he had with Al Jazeera were his announcement of separation from Daesh and its organization. Then later in mid-2016, he also made it official. This was the time when Al Qaeda and Daesh were getting defeated in Iraq and these people were trying to find a place to hide in Syria.
Al Julani then changed the name of his organization as well because he was officially separating himself from them, so he changed the name from Al Nusra Front to Hawat e Tahrir al Sham i.e. Organization for the Freedom of Shaam or Syria. He included dozens of small and big fighter groups with him, the biggest group among which was the Turkish backed group Free Syrian Army, this is the same group which America was openly supporting with weapons and is still doing so. After this Al Julani went ahead and started trying to capture different areas of Syria with his groups in the name of Tahrir al Sham. But at that time Iranian Al Quds Force, Hezbollah and Russian forces together started attacking this group so much that it was forced to retreat in areas of Adlib along the Turkish border. This means that Al Julani and his comrades were defeated but their training camps and arms supply from the West continued through Turkey.
In 2014, the American media group Frontline PBS published a documentary in which, according to which Al Julani, Front’s alliance with the American intelligence agency and the Turkish military was shown. In 2024, this video was again shown on YouTube where the fighters of the Free Syrian Army and Al Julani’s Al Nusra Front were shown using sophisticated anti-tank missiles. The fighters fired an anti-tank towed missile, which is an American missile , and also gave them a video of it which was recorded earlier. They included it in this documentary. In this, they were telling or rather showing that use of this American towed missile, was taught to them by the US. It was in the days when in the region of Adlib, there was no formal alliance between the Free Syrian Army and Anusra Front i.e. Al Julani’s forces. They were seeing fighting among themselves at many places, but both had American TOW missiles, surface to surface i.e. anti-tank missiles. There were reports that Anusra front forces snatched the missiles from the Free Syrian Army, but by 2021 it became clear that both these groups have Western making and the CIA is supplying them weapons through different secret methods. In the news it seemed that one group has snatched some weapons from the other group in an attack, but in reality the weapons were being supplied through these tactics because the groups had to be together. But in reality, weapons were being delivered through these tactics because covert efforts were being made to bring together those groups so that they could be made an asset that could be used when needed, as happens in secret operations. If people fighting for different purposes get together at one place, then both become each other’s assets for some time. In such alliances, the powerful partner considers the weaker partner an asset, while the weaker partner does not want to let go of the opportunity to use the powerful partner. So this is what was happening at that time.
The change now is that this asset has come to a powerful and ruling position, while also strengthening its image. One of its major efforts was that it did not target Christians and Shia minority sects in the areas under its control, but it facilitated them by construction of thousands of camps in its area for tens millions of Syrian refugees coming from different cities were given protection. This is the reason that thousands of fighters with them have come from these same camps. Bashar ul Assad forces’ expelled these families and they were living in these camps for years. They wanted to go back to their homes. The number of internally displaced refugees in Syria who were forced to leave the cities of Syria and go to Adlib and other places is more than 6 million. A large part of this was settled in the control area of Tahrir al Sham in Adlib. These were the tactics, these were the realities through which Tahrir al Sham and Free Syrian Army tried to show their soft image and were successful in that. One result of this is in front of you that the British government is reporting from Britain that they are considering changing the terrorist status of Tahrir al Sham and Al Julani, because in their view If we want to give stability to Syria, then we will have to change the status of this organization and the Free Syrian Army. The question is whether the Tahrir al Sham and Al Julani fighters have really changed.
Another American Bet
We have seen that America gives training, weapons and fame to an armed group, sells its moderate image and then when these groups start working against American interests in the changing circumstances, then America starts hunting these so-called assets and moderates by declaring them most wanted criminals. Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azam Sirajuddin Haqani are all examples of this. Apart from this, there are dozens of other examples. In fact, what happens is that even when America is supporting them, these groups have their own agendas, but temporarily these groups take help from America and America takes help from them for its own benefit. For the sake of forgiveness, but the long term goals of both are completely different, which start manifesting after gaining power. That is why often such groups which are supported by America, after gaining power, their members are also killed in an unknown way. So this kind of threat is also looming over Al Julani. Whatever Julani has done till now, i.e. after separating himself from Daesh, we can also understand it this way that what other option did he have because if he had remained associated with Al Qaeda or Daesh or had kept his ideology the same and had manifested it, then obviously he would have been killed by now. Just now on Sunday, going to the historic Umayyad Mosque of Damascus, Al Julani said that he does not intend to take revenge from anyone, even from the Syrian officials who were with Bashar ul Assad. He said that he has made a decision after which all the people of Syria, Syrian citizens will rebuild Sham. In his entire speech , he was presenting himself as a reformist modern leader like the Saudi crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman rather than a jihadist leader, although before this he had said in different interviews that whichever area is under the control of his forces, Sharia law will be imposed there. He has been giving statements against democracy and against republicanism and even during his speech in Ummayad mosque, he did not say a word in support of the democratic system even once. This is very important for the future of Syria because in 2011, the storm that came in the politics of Syria demanded democracy.
They wanted democracy in Syria and were demanding freedom of speech. When these legitimate demands of theirs were not met, firing, arrests, missile attacks and killings were started to crush them badly, then this movement became violent. And it went into the hands of armed groups and spread all over Syria and five big regions and 14 small regions were formed in Syria. So now if Tahrir al Sham do not agree on any suitable democratic formula and the fighters of Tahrir al Sham with Salafi mindset and the harming groups are not able to allow democracy and a system comes in which the Syrian youth for whom they came out and for whom they have sacrificed, that system contrary to it comes in, then once again the violence will start taking root in Syria. Remember that in many interviews given in Adlib, these groups, Julani and his fellow groups have openly said that we will give all rights in our areas but only according to Islamic Shariah and women will never be allowed to work in offices. So this is the brief introduction of the Syrian Movement.
The Real Enemy
A small, unknown but very important development is also taking place which will have a very deep impact on the future and that is that Israel has accelerated its advance in the southern Syria. Israeli forces have started occupying the areas ahead of the hills of Golan and other high strategic posts and those roads which are along the border areas of Lebanon. Then they have also started entering in the Syrian countryside and towns along the border of Jordan. They have issued orders to the people here to remain locked in their homes and have said that we are deploying this temporary forces, creating a buffer zone, but we all know very well that Israel has been expanding itself in this way for the last 60-70 years. It has been calling this occupied area a buffer zone, but after January, when Donald Trump will be the US President, it is not possible that he will be able to do anything on this buffer zone. The US should put its stamp that this is Israel’s territory because Donald Trump in his last tenure went against international laws and accepted Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights of Syria and the East Jerusalem part of Palestine which is internationally considered a part of Palestine. At least in the US policy, he gave legal status to the Israeli occupation. He not only considered East Jerusalem to be an independent part of Israel but also considered it to be Israel’s capital and then he also shifted the US embassy here whereas these areas are illegal according to the United Nations and the whole world.
Another question is also asked about Gaza that what will be the turn of the Palestinian issue when Iran’s influence ends in Syria. The question is that what shape will the Gaza war take now? What will happen to the Gaza genocide which Israel is carrying out in Syria. The victory of the big group will not have any effect on Gaza for now. In fact, the Syrian revolutionary group will not be able to do anything about its area of western Syria, Golan Heights and the other buffer zone occupied by Israel. Maybe not much Hezbollah and Iranian proxies have already been defeated in their areas, so now there is no hope of any good news coming from Gaza in terms of human rights. It is a matter of regret that Donald Trump will go to any extent to please Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. But all these are short term things. In the long term, if any Arab National Government becomes strong in Syria, then problems will start arising for Israel, that is, in terms of its occupation, because the stable government will make efforts on the Palestinian issue including the Golan Heights.